What did Newt Gingrich predict about the economy in August 1993?
Newt Gingrich, U.S. Representative (R-GA), House Republican Whip ·
In that framework, frankly, if I were only a Republican partisan, I would hope that this tax increase bill would pass by one or two votes so that every Democrat who voted yes would bear the responsibility for a massive tax increase and the job-killing recession it will lead to.
No recession until 2001; +22.9M jobs
Gingrich said the 1993 tax bill would lead to a job-killing recession. No recession came until 2001, and payrolls grew by about 22.9 million jobs from 1993 through 2000.
NBER dates the expansion that began in March 1991 as lasting 120 months, until March 2001, so no recession followed the 1993 bill. Payroll employment rose from 109.8 million in January 1993 to 132.7 million in December 2000 (BLS series CES0000000001).
Prediction vs. outcome · Economy
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The claim
- Date
- Where
- House floor debate on the conference report for the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 (Congressional Record, vol. 139, p. 19470).