What did Phil Gramm predict about the economy in August 1993?
Phil Gramm, U.S. Senator (R-TX) ·
I want to predict here tonight that if we adopt this bill the American economy is going to get weaker and not stronger, the deficit 4 years from today will be higher than it is today and not lower, despite the fact that we are imposing a massive tax increase, a 30-percent increase in marginal tax rates. … When all is said and done, people will pay more taxes, the economy will create fewer jobs, Government will spend more money and the American people will be worse off.
FY1997 deficit $22B vs $255B in FY1993
Gramm said the 1993 bill would weaken the economy and leave the deficit higher four years later. By fiscal 1997 the deficit had fallen from $255.1 billion to $21.9 billion, and payrolls grew by about 11.9 million jobs.
The federal deficit fell from $255.1 billion in fiscal 1993 to $21.9 billion in fiscal 1997, and the budget showed a surplus from 1998 (OMB data via FRED series FYFSD). Payroll employment rose from 111.2 million in August 1993 to 123.1 million in August 1997 (BLS series CES0000000001).
Prediction vs. outcome · Economy
Added · Updated
The claim
- Date
- Where
- Senate floor debate on the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 (Congressional Record, vol. 139, p. 19186).